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Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year backed the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.