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The gravest possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by researchers, encompassing a scorching 4C jump in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea levels. An alternative projection foresees a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact farming and energy demand.

Credible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These effects, a number of which are associated with critical climate thresholds, are considered as unlikely but possible. The scientists said that these models plugged a hole in risk assessment that had left the UK ill-prepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said the lead researcher who directed the study. "The nation has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but must not overlook."

A Range of Severe Conditions Scenarios

Another collection of worst-case scenarios sets out the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could skyrocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than the norm, while precipitation could be three times normal levels.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes occurring cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what steps will be taken to combat global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This approach was likened to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Critical Outcome Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon basin dying release its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and losing stability due to global heating. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and water resources would be completely altered," explained the professor.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, flooding coastal cities and towns. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from burning coal reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be applied to guide the building of long-term infrastructure, including new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Understanding these future hazards could also hasten the transition to reduce carbon pollution.

The research formulated the extreme models using a combination of past data and records, climate models and established principles. These outcomes do not take into account international cascading effects including the devastation of food supplies and increased conflict.

This work was commissioned as part of a government’s adaptation planning initiative. Previous assessments have cautioned that insufficient focus was being allocated to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the threats for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "very weak" by some observers.

An official statement said: "The climate emergency is at the core of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the consequences."